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141.
Several stratigraphic sequences in the Upper Carboniferous (Pennsylvanian) in Kansas (Midcontinent, USA) were analyzed quantitatively for periodic repetitions. The sequences were coded by lithologic type into strings of datasets. The strings then were analyzed by an adaptation of a one-dimensional Fourier transform analysis and examined for evidence of periodicity. The method was tested using different states in coding to determine the robustness of the method and data. The most persistent response is in multiples of 8–10 ft (2.5–3.0 m) and probably is dependent on the depositional thickness of the original lithologic units. Other cyclicities occurred in multiples of the basic frequency of 8–10 with persistent ones at 22 and 30 feet (6.5–9.0 m) and large ones at 80 and 160 feet (25–50 m). These levels of thickness relate well to the basic cyclothem and megacyclothem as measured on outcrop. We propose that this approach is a suitable one for analyzing cyclic events in the stratigraphic record. 相似文献
142.
Zhou Cuiying Wang Hongwei Wang Mei and Zhang YuxiaSeismological Bureau of Shandong Province Jinan China Center for Analysis Prediction SSB Beijing China 《中国地震研究》1997,(4)
In order to solve the problem of early estimation of moderately strong aftershock duration time in an earthquake sequence,this study has been conducted.First,the definition of the strong aftershock has been given.It is pointed out that there is a difference in the strong aftershock duration time between the main shock type sequence and the strong earthquake swarm sequence.After dividing the three cases,i.e.,a strong aftershock duration time larger than 1 day,smaller than 1 day,and no strong aftershock occurred in a main shock type sequence by using the pattern recognition method,we gave the rough correlation relation between strong aftershock duration time and first large shock magnitude for two types of sequences.Finally,the judgment index and method of estimating strong aftershock duration times for different sequence types have been given. 相似文献
143.
Dariusz Kucharczyk Miroslaw Luczynski Roman Kujawa Piotr Czerkies 《Aquatic Sciences - Research Across Boundaries》1997,59(3):214-224
Influence of water temperature on embryonic and larval development of bream (Abramis brama L.) was stdied. Eggs of bream were incubated at eight constant water temperatures between 13.2 and 26.8°C. The temperature
of 21.1°C gave highest hatching success, with no abnormalities in the eleutheroembryos and lowest mortality observed between
eyed egg stage and the time of hatching. Developmental rate increased with increasing temperature. Duration of embryonic development
(y; hours) decreased with increasing incubation temperature (x; °C) according to the formula: y=910.1−65.88 x+1.318 x2. Larvae were reared at eight constant temperatures ranging from 13.5 to 34.0°C. The instantaneous growth rate in wet weight
increased with increasing test temperature from 13.5 to 29.9°C, and then decreased at higher temperatures. Individual growth
of fish and biomass production rate were highest at 27.9°C. This temperature is considered optimal when food availability
and photoperiod are no limiting factors. 相似文献
144.
Federico Murrone Fabio Rossi Pierluigi Claps 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1997,11(6):483-510
A conceptual-stochastic approach to short time runoff data modelling is proposed, according to the aim of reproducing the
hydrological aspects of the streamflow process and of preserving as much as possible the dynamics of the process itself. This
latter task implies preservation of streamflow characteristics at higher scales of aggregation and, within a conceptual framework,
involves compatibility with models proposed for the runoff process at those scales. At a daily time scale the watershed response
to the effective rainfall is considered as deriving from the response of three linear reservoirs, respectively representing
contributions to streamflows of large deep aquifers, with over-year response lag, of aquifers which run dry by the end of
the dry season and of subsurface runoff. The surface runoff component is regarded as an uncorrelated point process. Considering
the occurrences of effective rainfall events as generated by an independent Poisson process, the output of the linear system
represents a conceptually-based multiple shot noise process. Model identification and parameter estimation are supported by
information related to the aggregated runoff process, in agreement to the conceptual framework proposed, and this allows parameter
parsimony, efficient estimation and effectiveness of the streamflow reproduction. Good performances emerged from the model
application and testing made with reference to some daily runoff series from Italian basins. 相似文献
145.
强余震持续时间的早期估计 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
本研究旨在解决地震序列中强余震持续时间的早期估计问题。文中首先给出了强余震的震级定义,指出:主震型与强震群型序列的强作震持续时间存在差异。使用模式识别方法对主震型序列中强余震持续时间大于1天,小于1天及无强余震等3种情况进行划分之后,给出了两类序列的强余震持续时间与序列和第一震震级的粗略相关关系。 相似文献
146.
147.
对某些类型的主震事件, 进行中短期预测也许是可能的. 利用Varnes, Bufe和Varnes提出的破裂时间法模拟前兆地震能量加速释放模型,通过实际观测资料与理论公式的拟合, 可以建立主地震事件的中短期预测技术, 用以确定表示主震的地点、时间和震级大小. 本文使用的是云南区域台网的地震目录资料,覆盖的时间段为1965~2002年. 统计分析表明,在此37年时间内,等于或大于2.5级地震资料是相当完整的. 本文对云南地区的30次主震事件进行了模拟,其中25次主震事件由前兆序列模拟得到的预测时间和震级与实际值相当接近,主震震级预测精度约0.57个震级单位,假定已知前兆序列中最后一次事件,则预测主震发生时间误差约0.64年.对另外的5次主震事件,由于没有足够的前兆事件来充分确定前兆能量加速曲线或是存在对能量加速释放曲线的干扰事件,而不能进行破裂时间法模拟.本文的研究结果还表明,由于云南是破坏性地震和中小地震活跃的地区,因此,主地震与前兆事件最佳搜索半径不存在明显的线性关系.主震矩与系数k,m之间存在强烈的相关性,利用主震地震矩与系数的关系和限制指数m的取值范围,可进一步缩小预测时间和预测震级的最佳拟合区范围,提高了模拟主震事件的预测精度. 本文采用破裂时间法对30次主震事件进行拟合,80%以上获得了较好的结果. 显示出该方法在预测已知主震事件序列的能力方面大有希望,因此,利用前兆事件对未来主震事件进行中短期预测的前景是令人鼓舞的. 相似文献
148.
引入并改进了区域-时间-长度算法(region-time-length algorithm),较之原来的定义更加强调了地震破裂尺度函数对VRTL的贡献,同时保证了震中距函数、时间函数及破裂尺度函数对VRTL影响的权系数相等.华北5级以上地震的回顾性预测研究结果表明,改进的RTL算法所得到的异常大多具有短期或中短期特征. 震前VRTL变化型态可分为两类:Ⅰ类具有相对完整的变化形态,大多呈现从0开始的上升——转折下降或下降——转折上升形态;Ⅱ类变化形态不完整,一般从0开始急剧上升或下降,无明显转折,主震发生在VRTL极值附近.VRTL上升表征地震活动水平相对于背景变化率的增高,意味着地震活动增强;VRTL下降则意味着地震活动相对于背景变化率的降低,在一定程度上表征了地震活动的平静.据此给出由RTL算法进行中、短期异常识别并粗略估计发震时间的方法. 该方法Ⅰ,Ⅱ类异常3个月内发震的R值评分分别为0.6及0.3左右, 6个月内的R评分分别为0.7及0.4左右.对特征时间跨度、特征距离、震级下限等对VRTL的影响, 以及其它一些实际应用中的重要问题进行了初步讨论. 相似文献
149.
设计了IAP (InstituteofAtmosphericPhysics,ChineseAcademyofSciences)AGCM III,对其动力框架作说明和检验 ,时间积分采用改进的非线性迭代法。用Rossby Haurwitz波对框架进行了波型检验、能量检验和波速检验。结果表明 ,非线性迭代 3次的时间积分方案具有较好的稳定性 ,能够有效地抑制短波 ,同时对长波的歪曲较小 ,且时间积分步长可放得较大 ;该框架能够较长时间地保持Rossby Haurwitz 4波波型 ,在积分过程中能够较高精度地保持总有效能量守恒 ;模式计算的Rossby Haurwitz波速为每天西传 1 5个经度 ,这与理伦值很接近。 相似文献
150.
A. Douaik M. van Meirvenne T. Tóth M. Serre 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2004,18(4):219-227
The mapping of saline soils is the first task before any reclamation effort. Reclamation is based on the knowledge of soil salinity in space and how it evolves with time. Soil salinity is traditionally determined by soil sampling and laboratory analysis. Recently, it became possible to complement these hard data with soft secondary data made available using field sensors like electrode probes. In this study, we had two data sets. The first includes measurements of field salinity (ECa) at 413 locations and 19 time instants. The second, which is a subset of the first (13 to 20 locations), contains, in addition to ECa, salinity determined in the laboratory (EC2.5). Based on a procedure of cross-validation, we compared the prediction performance in the space-time domain of 3 methods: kriging using either only hard data (HK) or hard and mid interval soft data (HMIK), and Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) using probabilistic soft data. We found that BME was less biased, more accurate and giving estimates, which were better correlated with the observed values than the two kriging techniques. In addition, BME allowed one to delineate with better detail saline from non-saline areas. 相似文献